trailboss99 994 Posted February 17, 2009 I think this was worth porting over. Robbie makes a lot of sense even if what he has to say isn't the most popular theory around. Not to burst anyones bubble, but saying any dealer has any power with the factories is just laughable - except in that some provide 1:1 watches for projects and can get special consideration on 1st sale. For the benefit of noobs who don't know how the system works allow me to use this thread as springboard to clear up a few misconceptions of how factory lies end up coming down the pipeline and get blamed on dealers. Plus, I'm bored and haven't done a really long post in a while that can get my bud Lani busting my chops like the good ole' days (love ya brah!). Anyway, the ETA clone issue is a similar fiasco as is the Seagull ST19 being called a Lemania movement. And I'm sure what I write will be agressively challenged so I'll put my fire suit on. It won't be the first time. But I won't turn it into a pi*sing contest, nor am I intending to start another debate about the same old thing, but I feel that there should be a bit more perspective about who is really in control in China. Hint: It isn't ANY of our dealers. The bottom line is the dealers just follow the factories direction and marketing and pricing to keep their charter. Even the websites are sort of "approved" by the factories as they need to effectively present the range of products and the factories along with the dealers need to track traffic, discrete visitors, etc. to track and gauge interest in the products at the higher sale levels. These boards and the sales that come from them are test markets for the wholesale watch markets. The dealers being in favor with factories has to do with web traffic. The more traffic they generate to their sites and can prove so to the factory, the more "favortism" they can earn. They have to prove that traffic. That is what it is all about. And the makers dog constantly patrol these forums to see what we are saying. If something gets done it comes from them deciding that it is a big enough deal, but trust me, changes are not initiated by our dealers and if they mention something the factory will "take it under advisement", but as long as it doesn't effect the wholesale biz they probably aren't going to care. They have to invest a tremendous amount of capital to make these replications and it is no joke. It wouldn't be if it were any of your money either. They control and run it with an iron fist to protect their millions. It affects everything including pricing. They can't afford to have price wars either because it comes right off the bottom line at wholesale - trust me. Make no mistake, factories are part of cartels that control the watch trade. But the factories are the cartel, not the dealers. I always have to laugh when I see that in print about a couple dealers. This organization is huge biz and again, it is run by factories (read: the Mob who has lots of little factories/assembly houses/places with the million dollar CNC equipment guarded by guys with machine guns and moreover hundreds of little factions all feeding the whole). The dealers are pretty much powerless. All they are there for and are allowed to operate for is to show the factories the way in terms of what is hot and not and sells and doesn't sell so they can do as well as possible in the wholesale watch markets - That's it. Our dealers operate at the pleasure of the factories and if they become a pain in the a*s for them by asking for too many favors or being critical about movments or whatever, they would just get laughed off the block. There is always another dealer ready to take the place of one who doesn't play by the rules... Like if they sell watches for too cheap for example - another laughable thing that comes up around here. The factories don't fix prices huh? Yeah right, they will just let dealers sell for whatever they want and ruin their bottom line in the wholesale markets that represent 80% of their business. The factory (the true cartel - read: Mob) makes a percentage of every watch. The higher the end user price, the more their cut is as a percentage. Yeah, the mob doesn't price fix. OK, think that. The Columbian cartels don't care what everyone at the high and mid levels price the coke at either. Yeah, and I'm a Chinese astronaut... To anyone who thinks dealers are anything but pawns in this game and one is really better than another, lies, etc. I offer you this: Consider the cocaine cartels in Central America. Do you really think some mid level dealer in Miami tests a kilo every time he gets a new batch and if it is yellow in color instead of pink, he just calls up the source and tells them to use a different chemical for the wash? Or moreover, tells them how to package the coke better to satisfy the hundred and fifty guys he knows that are each going to buy a quarter ounce or an eight ball? They don't like the generic baggies they use as the zip closure opens up sometimes. Hey could you guys please start using brand name Ziplocks? Thanks. This is the exactsame type of organization that run our precious replica business. Our watch dealers are selling us proverbial eight balls. In other words, their numbers are low level sh*t in the grand scheme. Just look at it from a biz standpoint, why would the head of an organization like this even be in this business if he needed to worry about what happened regarding a few hundred watches coming from a single dealer who gets 75% or more of his sales from these forums. It is twenty grand worth of revenue to them even if you clock it at a hundred a watch to the maker. A joke in other words for an organization of that size. I'll tell you what, I wouldn't be buying millions of dollars worth of equipment, employing hundreds, and taking major legal risks for those peanuts generated from these forums - and neither would any of you if you are smart. But for the dealer it is a handsome living and good for them. That is precicely why the systems work - for watches or drugs. The dealer to the end user being able to bank big is the key to the whole thing ironically. So don't begrudge a dealer making a great living. Even if he is driving a Ferrari on your dime. Congratulate his success and ask him to drive it when you visit him one day. It has to be worth everyone's while guys. If any one of us was on the other end it would be no different. Why? Because retailers being at the mercy of suppliers is not a new concept (unless you are Wal Mart and you literally own the supplier which is a bad example) nor is it one that is specific to the replica markets. I take 30% of client profits in my deal which is rarely done. Most take 20%. Am I gouging? Is it wrong? I must be worth it because they keep paying me. Shold I charge 20% instead because I should be looking out for them more? How about 15%? After all they have kids in college. What kind of jerk would charge 30% anyway. Sheesh. Our old freind consensus of value. The market is always right. The price of reps and the profits made at every level is exactly what it is supposed to be as is every free market price in every successful business in the world. We know this because the watches keep selling and the key players don' change much. Everyone is profiting well so they stay in the game. I say good for all of them. But yet we hear that $400 is far too much for a high quality watch and $300 or $200 is what they think they should cost. People actually think they can trancend a price in a free market on moral ground? Wow. I wonder what might happen to my accounts equity if I took that position in my world? Hmmm. Hey brother, can you spare some change... I think we all see the point in how silly these ideas are and yet we tend to want to bend the replica watch market to our specification. It is a crooked business run by crooks guys - and the truth of it is the dealers (as long as they deliver products to buyers and provide after sale support) are doing about all they can do for us and are the least crooked of all actually. That is the hypocracy of it all that amazes me. We all condone it by feeding it with money yet some of us actually attempt to judge the actions of the participants on moral grounds. What would Freud say about that? But then we also sue cigarette companies for giving us lung cancer and fast food joints for making us fat bast*rds so I suppose it is no surprise. And which dealer one chooses is just personal preference. They are all at the mercy of the top. They are all essential the same - just swag organizations. The "fell off a truck" garment biz in NYC. The drug biz as mentioned before. Replica watches. All the same. The only difference is the product. Hey Mr. Factory Man - change this, change that. Market it this way. Say this. Say that. Yeah right...The answer in all will be the same - a resounding "F*ck you and the glass pipe/syntheic fur/mainspring you rode in on". A single dealer telling Pablo E. how to run his drug operation is as futile as a single internet retail watch dealer who specializes in selling to three forums and hundreds, not thousands of watches at a time telling the factory not to lie or do a better job counting jewels. I realize that there are many here that like to sort of be on the "high horse" - always talking about what is just and right. I'm with you - I really am, in terms of wishing everything in life is that way. But it isn't. I can sit and curse at my screen everytime I see crooked floor traders at the CME manipulate my markets at lunch time in low volume and go gunning for stops in my sensible trades, but what good does it do? Should I call the complicance officer and sit on hold for an hour? How about write an email to him? Can I prove it? Well no sir, but I have been doing this a long time and...Better to just accept things as they are, adapt to them, and live longer from less stress. As it relates to watches that become paperweights look at it in a positive way - they always will be and there will be new paperweights released all the time. But they way around it is study and learn about movements and read here to stay up on the problematic ones. Don't purchase anything suspect until Francisco and other watchmakers have had a chance to do their labors of love (thanks Francisco!) and give you a heads up. There is just no excuse anymore of being in a position of the victim. Plus, it is tired and doesn't really play here anymore if you ask me. Nothing worse than reading the same old woe is me I'm a victim of the replica industry stuff anymore - especially from old school members. Victim. Victim. Victim. Just so boring. We know what the pitfall stuff is so how about we just don't buy them and save the discussions which are always the same. Of course I guess I'm guilty of starting another one - although with a different slant this time. Some guys telling us how things should be, and other guys telling us how things are and always will be. The latter sure seems more sensible to me... Get your fire and gasoline - and someone call the true RobbieG haters and get them in here too. lol. .02 Discuss. Col. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JohnG 41 Posted February 17, 2009 I have never seen anyone who spouts so much "information" without offering one single shred of evidence to support his statements. Could be true, sort of true, not really true, total bullshit - who knows? This guy just loves the sound of his own voice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trailboss99 994 Posted February 17, 2009 My reply. Flame you? LOL, brother that's proberly THE most sensible post on this whole subject I’ve read in all my time on all of the rep fora. What you say makes perfect sense to me. Have any of you guys read, and I mean READ that old post on the GZ markets? It covers dozens of blocks guys! Who has seen Luthier's post at RWG1.1 on the same subject? Seen the pics? Read T4D's response to a thread on the size of the market over at RWI? And I quote (approximately too busy with raffle to go look) "as to its total size I would estimate larger that the GDP of some small countries" he don't mean Tuvalu either! It's freakin huge fellas and we are such a small corner of it we don't matter a damn. We are very lucky when the factories make any concessions to us at all. All the time I hear "why don't they fix this or that?" because it ain't worth their while to fix such minor probs, that’s why. The rep for gen substitution racket is the only reason things are as accurate as they are now IMHO. And another thing, folk who whine about a 200% mark-up. Do you have the faintest idea in Hell what the average mark-up is on legit stuff out of CN that you buy everyday from Wal-Mart, Circuit City, Auto Barn etc? Between five and fifteen HUNDRED percent! A $300 BBQ at Wal-Mart costs them about eighty bucks landed. Small stuff like tools is much higher. A hundred dollar gen watch at a jeweller is landed for under twenty, the retailer pays fifty tops. And you don't go to gaol for selling a cheapie Chinese gen! Had a look at the Sea-Gull USA site? Go on, have a look NOW. Not cheap are they? Same MVTs as our reps and many times as expensive. It really aint as bad as you think folks as anyone in the wholesale/retail game can attest. /me goes and grabs a pair of fire hoses and stands back to back with Robbie. Just hope Robbie doesn't get a visit from a cpl of goons from da CN mob! Regards, Col. BTW, I was thinking you may be laying the coke stuff on a bit thick there matey EDIT: Oh, and Francisco, sorry for hijacking your excellent thread. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
greg_r 81 Posted February 17, 2009 There's a lot of what Robbie says that rings true. I've done business in the far east (albeit many years ago) and it's pretty cutthroat. Frankly, there's no way to know for sure unless you're deeply involved in the market concerned (and possibly not even then). Overall, Robbie's take on the situation is as likely as any I've read, however, and I'd say that much of it is credible. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billywhiz 312 Posted February 17, 2009 (edited) Think I added some apples to that cart when i mentioned the top dealers should have a quite word with factories, well i guess and now advised that ain't the case - lead from the top, very military. P.S Do Jandrew drive Ferrari's Edited February 17, 2009 by billywhiz Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JohnG 41 Posted February 17, 2009 Who knows how the whole thing works... Columbian cartels have little to no control over operations at street level - likely to be the same for the majority of these dealers. There are thousands and thousands of little dealers all over the net, never mind the zillions more on the streets all over the world. Nah, most of these watches get sold in bulk lots to middlemen. Josh is likely one of the few that has direct contact with the factories - and it is probably just a few out of the many that exist all over Asia... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trailboss99 994 Posted February 17, 2009 Exactly. That's one of the points. We get first look most of the time. Alltho the new Top Gun appears to be the exception to this rule. One of the wolesalers got it first. Maybe they supplied the gen. The little dealers you refer too get stock from the wholesalers in GZ, a step Jandrew appear to bypass. P.S Do Jandrew drive Ferrari's No, they drive REP Ferrari's! Actualy they well indeed may. There is quite a trade in rep Ferrai's in CN. Very good reps too. Col. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
onzenuub 307 Posted February 17, 2009 Who the fuck is Jandrew???? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billywhiz 312 Posted February 17, 2009 Who the fuck is Jandrew???? lol Josh & Andrew Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
onzenuub 307 Posted February 17, 2009 Who the fuck is Jandrew???? lol Josh & Andrew Than call them Josh and Andrew so we all know Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billywhiz 312 Posted February 17, 2009 Who the fuck is Jandrew???? lol Josh & Andrew Than call them Josh and Andrew so we all know Thought the term was common place - noted and will split for future discussions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
onzenuub 307 Posted February 17, 2009 Who the fuck is Jandrew???? lol Josh & Andrew Than call them Josh and Andrew so we all know Thought the term was common place - noted and will split for future discussions. Thank you Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trailboss99 994 Posted February 17, 2009 FFS onze, hardly a new term. Everyone calls 'em Jandrew. Don't mind him Billy, he's just a cranky little bugger this morning. Lord knows why. Col. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RolexAddict 1 Posted February 17, 2009 (edited) Welcome billywhiz ! Enjoy this forum, lot of fun here, Edited February 17, 2009 by RolexAddict Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JohnG 41 Posted February 17, 2009 Who the fuck is Jandrew???? lol Josh & Andrew See Onze, even the noobs know more than you do. How have you made it this long without learning a damn thing around here? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
onzenuub 307 Posted February 17, 2009 Who the fuck is Jandrew???? lol Josh & Andrew See Onze, even the noobs know more than you do. How have you made it this long without learning a damn thing around here? I knew it, only think it is nonsense to call someone Jandrew if his name is Andrew. I am not Jonzenuub. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JohnG 41 Posted February 17, 2009 Who the fuck is Jandrew???? lol Josh & Andrew See Onze, even the noobs know more than you do. How have you made it this long without learning a damn thing around here? I knew it, only think it is nonsense to call someone Jandrew if his name is Andrew. I am not Jonzenuub. You would be if your twin brother was named Josh. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
onzenuub 307 Posted February 17, 2009 Who the fuck is Jandrew???? lol Josh & Andrew See Onze, even the noobs know more than you do. How have you made it this long without learning a damn thing around here? I knew it, only think it is nonsense to call someone Jandrew if his name is Andrew. I am not Jonzenuub. You would be if your twin brother was named Josh. You don't know my twinbrother. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dead Bird Dog 2 Posted February 18, 2009 Flame you? LOL, brother that's proberly THE most sensible post on this whole subject I’ve read in all my time on all of the rep fora. I agree. I can think of another industry that is dominated by some folks from Korea that pretty much fits the same bill. Excellent post. Secondly who's really to whine about the price of reps anyway? Given what the real thing will cost you a decently made rep is STILL a bargain. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AllergyDoc 40 Posted February 18, 2009 Secondly who's really to whine about the price of reps anyway? Given what the real thing will cost you a decently made rep is STILL a bargain. No kidding. Far too much whining. I'm with John, though. When I read that on RWG I wondered where he got his info from. I would like to know how he knows all that, if he does know it at all. No. I take that back. Actually I don't care. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trailboss99 994 Posted February 18, 2009 I don't see any of the other big guns over there disputing what he has to say. Folk like Ziggy and others who know the game would have spoken up by now if they were in disareance with what he said. And, face it, if you know anything about how China works it makes perfect sence. How else would an ilegale (yes, even in CN) industry with the size and turnover of the rep trade survive without protection? If it was truely a whole heap of little guys the gov would have stomped on them by now. With the CN mob being as powerfull as it is (and boy'o'boy it is) why would they leave such a luctrive trade alone? The CN opium days are long gone as far as large scale production goes so they gotta do somthing to earn a crust. It's just that people don't like to think the're supporting gangsters. Oke, terrorists is pushing it, there arn't that many in CN but the place is awash with mobsters of all descriptions. Who do you think finances those rep farraris at a cpl of hundred grand each to make? Go to any wreckers in the west and ask how many pranged Ferrais are bought by "gentleman of an easten persusion". An estimate HALF of the Euro lux cars in CN were stolen in the west or Hong Kong. That;s small chease compared to the billions in the rep game. Now, wave to the nice gangsta and go buy more raffle tickets! Come to think of it, Mr gansta, buy some plaese! What's a cpl of thou for the folk who do your testing and evaluation for you? Col. Greg, we need a waveing smilie and since I don't have acess to the smilie stack . . . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
greg_r 81 Posted February 18, 2009 Your wish etc..... :P Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JohnG 41 Posted February 18, 2009 Again, I am not saying that Robbie is wrong. But it seems to me like he states supposition as fact. A lot of the things he says are logical, but he routinely states opinion as FACT. His posts read like he is a NYT investigative reporter who KNOWS these things. He never says, "I think" or "logically" or "most likely" or "probably". If an idea pops into his mind, it miraculously becomes fact. As to people contradicting him, Ziggy, Freddy, Tribal, By-Tor and all those guys are sick and tired of him. They generally haven't posted in his threads since the famous "ETA" thread. If you DO disagree with him he writes another ten paragraphs, all without any support, until he exhausts you or pisses you off. He got so nasty with dissenters at RG that they banned him. A lot of people who have a lot more time in this hobby than he does have disagreed with him and it always turns ugly - that is why he makes the comment at the end about the "RobbieG haters" - his arrogant self-important attitude is really exasperating to many. The only place they take him seriously is at RWI where they gave him a stick and a lot of "great thread man!" without really questioning his sources (which of course, don't exist). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
trailboss99 994 Posted February 21, 2009 A lot of the things he says are logical, but he routinely states opinion as FACT Yep, I'll give you that. RWI? He hardly posts there. Didn't even know he was a member Col. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RolexAddict 1 Posted February 21, 2009 I didn't read the entire responses well, just flown over, but: I am sure this rep business is a very big industry, I don't believe the story of 14 years old children working in basements or secret shops in dark steets this is a BIG business, with enginers and watchsmithes, and people at the head are big gangsters and I suppose Russian /Balkan mafia for most of them May be some of our good trusted dealers are not at all Chinese Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
